Hypotheses Good and you can B relate to the first phase
- d P ( R 90 + we , t = 1 | A good i , t , N we , t , A beneficial ? i , t , Letter ? i , https://paydayloanalabama.com/bon-air/ t ) d A great we , t > 0 and P ( Roentgen 90 + i , t = step 1 | An excellent we , t , A good ? we , t , N i , t , N ? i , t ) ? 0
- d P ( Roentgen ninety + i , t = step one | Good we , t , N we , t , An excellent ? i , t , N ? i , t ) d An effective i , t ? 0
- d P ( F we , t = step 1 | Good i , t , Letter i , t , An effective ? we , t , N ? i , t , R ninety + i , t ? step one = step 1 ) d Good i , t > 0 and you may P ( F we , t = 1 | A we , t , Good ? i , t , N i , t N ? we , t , R ninety + i , t ? 1 = step one ) ? 0
- d P ( F i , t = 1 | An effective i , t , N i , t , A good ? i , t , N ? i , t , R 90 + i , t ? step one = 1 ) d Good we , t ? 1 = 0
Hypothesis A states that the probability of a loan entering 90+ day arrears is increasing in the size of the ability-to-pay shock and is close to 0 where the size of the shock does not exceed the borrowers’ ability-to-pay threshold. Hypothesis B states that the marginal probability of a loan entering 90+ day arrears is at best weakly related to negative equity. Under the double-trigger hypothesis, negative equity itself does not cause borrowers to enter arrears. However, previous research has suggested that borrowers may be less willing to cut back on their consumption to remain current on their repayments when they have negative equity (Gerardi et al 2018). If this is the case, then threshold A ? i , t may be a function of Nwe,t and the derivative in Hypothesis B may be positive.
Hypotheses C and you will D relate genuinely to the second stage. Theory C states your probability of foreclosure was increasing during the the new the amount from bad guarantee, since the borrowed funds has been in arrears, but is close to 0 where the quantity away from negative equity is actually less than the cost of foreclosure.